Saturday, June 11, 2005

More on Hillary Clinton's Presidential prospects

Robert Novak comments on Hillary's prospects among Democratic voters. According to Novak, the party insiders have already decided that Clinton is the one, but the rank and file aren't so enthusiastic.

This seems to be a standard canard among conservatives and the far left of the Democratic Party: that Hillary is unelectable. What they are really saying is that they don't want Hillary elected for their various reasons. I'm sure in the case of Democrats, there is also fear that she isn't electable, but these polls seem to say otherwise.

The first poll looks rather bleak, showing that only 52% of voters would consider voting for her. But keep in mind that's a pretty nice jump from when only 41% would have considered her. Now 41% would make me think she was unelectable, if it held up over time, which it hasn't. Really, Hillary Clinton, despite the name recognition, is not that much of a known quantity as a politician. She's only served four years in the Senate, and has held no other office aside from that. She can still go way up or way down in opinion polls based on what kind of campaign she runs.

The next poll regarding Hillary is a lot more hopeful. It shows her behind John McCain, possibly the most popular politician in America, but only eight points. She is in a statistical tie with Rudy Giuliani, another popular politician. She absolutely demolishes Jeb Bush. Surprisingly, Edwards looks pretty robust as well, actually beating Giuliani in trial heats. I've always liked Edwards for the most part, so no complaints there if the Democrats nominate him.

Most of the other polls show Hillary competitive with the Republicans most popular potential nominees. What I would really like to see, since Republicans are skeptical of McCain and Giuliani, is how well Clinton stacks up against Frist or Allen, the candidates more likely to be supported by the party's evangelist base. Personally, I think a trial heat poll would show Clinton kicking their asses.